Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 39.205826 42.740149 46.626524 51.251272 56.650474 62.812628 70.463286
2025-02-16 33.577544 38.192776 43.638843 50.661550 59.668267 71.120518 87.302049
2025-02-23 30.133201 35.197707 41.450053 49.959100 61.624527 77.721995 103.018961
2025-03-02 27.544114 32.792745 39.489372 48.981130 62.692872 82.936164 117.884509
2025-03-09 25.682086 31.059228 38.110647 48.458804 64.115366 88.716909 135.303642
2025-03-16 23.785909 29.085631 36.172501 46.838611 63.542913 91.088723 147.355128
2025-03-23 23.227921 28.837170 36.543563 48.563948 68.358863 103.476933 184.563603
2025-03-30 22.163261 27.796320 35.678328 48.279803 69.785707 110.063130 212.610003
2025-04-06 21.122949 26.711854 34.650438 47.606216 70.399604 115.175198 240.120545
2025-04-13 19.947574 25.362680 33.130873 45.983597 69.066560 115.942189 255.846362
2025-04-20 19.653782 25.259649 33.462036 47.415485 73.566887 130.585588 329.261201
2025-04-27 19.330097 25.086583 33.662453 48.632295 77.852939 146.250679 429.393452
2025-05-04 18.752320 24.526129 33.253016 48.810003 80.225716 158.457805 541.644228
2025-05-11 18.083877 23.796987 32.531738 48.368029 81.251089 167.568783 663.565271
2025-05-18 17.430160 23.055972 31.741680 47.719700 81.716087 175.313594 806.874266
2025-05-25 16.777146 22.284929 30.855747 46.810308 81.448049 180.758172 960.569388
2025-06-01 16.252142 21.688347 30.222912 46.324202 82.097902 189.692616 1222.723297
2025-06-08 15.575129 20.827352 29.105185 44.814937 80.081446 188.498775 1340.955441
2025-06-15 15.497497 20.902800 29.563399 46.422073 86.013134 220.433136 2756.786048
2025-06-22 15.103432 20.457666 29.106541 46.157560 87.134641 233.892104 4491.344681
2025-06-29 14.673737 19.938913 28.496247 45.530251 87.199384 242.897792 7360.253170
2025-07-06 14.124781 19.210357 27.490263 44.017604 84.654869 238.400361 8514.004239
2025-07-13 14.056298 19.254868 27.837371 45.352557 90.253220 279.013006 462814.875411